Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
