Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
